Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.149996 0.177396 0.209508 0.250211 0.300843 0.362298 4.433623e-01
2025-08-31 0.115699 0.148827 0.191891 0.253001 0.339192 0.459081 6.433323e-01
2025-09-07 0.093168 0.128711 0.179248 0.258610 0.384458 0.584366 9.437618e-01
2025-09-14 0.076464 0.112511 0.168066 0.263912 0.434061 0.742924 1.398675e+00
2025-09-21 0.061877 0.096078 0.152598 0.258644 0.467572 0.898794 1.983033e+00
2025-09-28 0.046793 0.075559 0.125605 0.225652 0.439401 0.928736 2.349125e+00
2025-10-05 0.040278 0.068083 0.119488 0.230440 0.492641 1.178836 3.601910e+00
2025-10-12 0.035766 0.063198 0.117037 0.242583 0.572125 1.569679 5.995610e+00
2025-10-19 0.031599 0.058078 0.112911 0.250209 0.648433 2.041676 9.939078e+00
2025-10-26 0.028171 0.053703 0.109305 0.258366 0.735609 2.675559 1.716339e+01
2025-11-02 0.024538 0.048166 0.101765 0.253806 0.783276 3.242643 2.723258e+01
2025-11-09 0.021124 0.042458 0.092486 0.241197 0.797378 3.703604 4.031378e+01
2025-11-16 0.018937 0.039211 0.088806 0.245414 0.889253 4.849242 7.859548e+01
2025-11-23 0.017031 0.036253 0.085169 0.248812 0.987148 6.362852 1.648663e+02
2025-11-30 0.015488 0.033868 0.082497 0.254876 1.111056 8.603774 4.043756e+02
2025-12-07 0.014137 0.031701 0.079908 0.260564 1.247312 11.718847 1.164731e+03
2025-12-14 0.012681 0.029001 0.075109 0.255759 1.322689 14.709572 3.237022e+03
2025-12-21 0.010747 0.024740 0.064662 0.223470 1.187156 14.027524 4.288838e+03
2025-12-28 0.009954 0.023404 0.062995 0.228427 1.326156 19.304354 2.353640e+04
2026-01-04 0.009396 0.022609 0.062869 0.240637 1.548582 29.204246 5.431401e+05
2026-01-11 0.008803 0.021609 0.061829 0.248356 1.757147 42.825731 1.443486e+09
2026-01-18 0.008274 0.020707 0.060911 0.256582 1.998626 64.485942 NaN
2026-01-25 0.007612 0.019304 0.057889 0.252173 2.105878 84.447069 NaN